Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles shut out the Atlanta Braves 4-0 on June 11, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely as it moved from a 66 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was effectively decided in the second inning, when Jorge Mateo delivered a home run off Max Fried that swung win probability 15.3 percent in Baltimore's favor, the single most consequential play of the night. The Orioles added an insurance run in the sixth on an Austin Hays single, also off Fried, which shifted the probability another 4.6 percent toward Baltimore and extinguished any remaining hope of an Atlanta comeback.

Max Fried absorbed the bulk of the damage on the mound, surrendering all four runs while appearing in the game's three most pivotal batting-team moments. On the offensive side, Atlanta's best opportunity came in the fourth inning when Matt Olson drew a walk off Albert Suárez, a moment that added 3.9 percent win probability for the Braves, though it ultimately produced nothing on the scoreboard. Adam Duvall's strikeout against Jacob Webb in the sixth swung probability 3.6 percent back toward Baltimore, effectively closing the door on a rally that never materialized.

Among individual performers, Mateo led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, making his second-inning home run the defining moment of the contest. Hays finished with a WPA of plus-7.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.8 to complement the offensive effort, while Olson was the lone Brave to register a positive WPA figure at plus-8.6, though his RE24 of 0.0 reflected how little Atlanta converted. On the pitching side, Albert Suárez led Baltimore's staff with a WPA of plus-9.0, followed by Jacob Webb at plus-7.9 and Pierce Johnson at plus-3.0, as the three combined to preserve what Fried's home run ball had started.