Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 3-0 defeat at American Family Field on June 11, 2024, overcoming a pregame environment that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had heavily favoring the home side at 63% win probability. Toronto scored in three separate innings — the second, fourth, and ninth — never allowing Milwaukee to answer, finishing with nine hits and no errors against five hits and one error for the Brewers.

The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the bottom of the eighth inning, where the Brewers mounted their most credible threat. Christian Yelich's double off Trevor Richards represented the single largest positive swing in Milwaukee's favor on the night, shifting win probability by plus 12.4 percentage points, but the rally collapsed in short order. Sal Frelick's flyout off Richards erased 11.0 points of that probability, and Rhys Hoskins followed with another flyout off Richards worth minus 10.4 points. When Yimi García entered and struck out Blake Perkins, the Brewers shed another 12.3 points, effectively ending any realistic path to a comeback. Earlier, Spencer Horwitz's fourth-inning single off Carlos Rodriguez had been Toronto's most impactful offensive moment, generating a plus 9.8 percentage point swing.

Horwitz led all position players with a plus 12.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Danny Jansen posted the best RE24 among batters at plus 1.3 alongside a plus 8.4 percent WPA contribution. On the mound, Yusei Kikuchi was the dominant force of the evening, accounting for plus 32.0 percent WPA, the largest single-player contribution of the game. García and Chad Green added plus 9.1 and plus 8.8 percent respectively in relief, closing out a performance that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate at exactly 0 percent for Milwaukee by the final out.