Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Chicago White Sox 8-4 on June 10, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, improving what had been an already favorable position into a dominant finish. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with an 81 percent pre-game home win probability for Seattle and reached 100 percent by the final out, a trajectory that reflected how thoroughly the Mariners controlled the late innings after a quiet first five frames.

The game's pivotal sequence unfolded in the bottom of the eighth inning, where Seattle broke open what had been a manageable deficit. Luis Robert Jr. had given Chicago a temporary lift with a home run off Logan Gilbert in the top of the sixth that carried a win-probability swing of plus 24.8 percent, and the White Sox added a run in the seventh and another in the eighth to pull within striking distance at 4-4. But Seattle's response in the bottom of the eighth was decisive. Luke Raley's single off Michael Kopech produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 29.6 percent, and Mitch Haniger followed with a single off Kopech that added another plus 18.0 percent to Seattle's ledger. Cal Raleigh capped the night with a home run off Jordan Leasure in the bottom of the ninth worth plus 15.4 percent, pushing the final margin to four runs.

On the individual side, Raley finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus 25.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Haniger posted plus 21.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9. Robert Jr. led all White Sox hitters with plus 17.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4, though his effort was ultimately not enough. On the mound, Erick Fedde was the standout performer of the night, contributing plus 45.8 percent WPA to pace all pitchers, with Ryne Stanek adding plus 13.5 percent in support.