MLB Recap · June 10, 2024

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

HOU3
Final
SF4

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
HOU0000001002391
SF0000010003491

The Story

The San Francisco Giants walked off the Houston Astros 4-3 in ten innings on June 10, 2024, at Oracle Park, completing a comeback that erased a two-run Houston lead built in the top of the tenth. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Giants a 58% win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out.

The game was scoreless through five innings before Mike Yastrzemski broke the deadlock with a triple off Spencer Arrighetti in the bottom of the sixth, a play that shifted win probability by 16.7 points in San Francisco's favor. The Giants carried that 1-0 lead into the seventh, when Houston knotted the game, and the two clubs traded zeroes through the ninth. The top of the tenth opened with the automatic runner in motion, and Trey Cabbage delivered the biggest blow for Houston, a single off Erik Miller that moved the win probability needle 32.0 points toward the Astros and gave them a 3-1 advantage heading to the bottom half.

San Francisco answered immediately against Rafael Montero in a bottom tenth that produced three of the game's four biggest individual plays. Austin Slater singled to extend the inning for a 15.9-point swing, Brett Wisely followed with a run-scoring single worth 23.3 points, and Patrick Bailey capped the rally with a walk-off single that added 36.5 points to the Giants' win probability and finished the comeback. Bailey led all position players with a WPA of plus-41.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Cabbage posted plus-32.0 and plus-1.3 despite ending up on the losing side. On the mound, Tayler Scott topped San Francisco's staff with a WPA of plus-19.2, and Camilo Doval contributed plus-13.5 in the win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025HOU bats firstFinalSF win %HOU win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Patrick Bailey Single
Bot 10th · off Rafael Montero
+36.5%
Trey Cabbage Single
Top 10th · off Erik Miller
+32.0%
Brett Wisely Single
Bot 10th · off Rafael Montero
+23.3%
Mike Yastrzemski Triple
Bot 6th · off Spencer Arrighetti
+16.7%
Austin Slater Single
Bot 10th · off Rafael Montero
+15.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Patrick Bailey+41.2%+1.6 RE24
Trey Cabbage+32.0%+1.3 RE24
Brett Wisely+18.5%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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