Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-4 on June 9, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, completing the comeback in extra innings after the DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving the home side just a 29 percent chance of winning. Boston scored two runs in the tenth and one each in the fifth, sixth, and ninth to erase a deficit that Chicago had built in the fourth, with the model's final estimate settling at zero percent for the White Sox.

The decisive swing of the game came in the top of the tenth inning, when a field error off Michael Soroka on a ball hit by Jarren Duran shifted win probability by 32.0 percent in Boston's favor, the single largest play of the contest. Rob Refsnyder followed with a single off Soroka that added another 24.1 percent, effectively closing the door on Chicago. The White Sox had done their most meaningful damage in the bottom of the fourth, when Paul DeJong connected on a home run off Justin Slaten that moved the needle 22.3 percent toward Chicago. Boston's path back began in earnest in the ninth, where David Hamilton's double off Tanner Banks added 20.4 percent and Reese McGuire's sacrifice fly added another 17.5 percent to tie the game.

Duran was the standout performer of the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-43.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1. Gavin Sheets contributed plus-26.3 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 for Chicago, providing the bulk of the White Sox offensive impact, while Hamilton posted plus-25.4 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 for Boston. Out of the bullpen, John Brebbia led Boston's relievers at plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Chris Flexen at plus-9.9 percent and Justin Anderson at plus-8.1 percent.