Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-2 at Great American Ball Park on June 9, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically — Cincinnati entered with a 54% win probability and finished at 0%. Chicago struck early and decisively, plating three runs in the first inning and adding one more in the second to build a 4-0 lead that proved to be more than enough. The Reds managed single runs in the third and seventh innings but never mounted a genuine threat, finishing with just five hits against a Cubs pitching staff that was in firm control throughout.

Shota Imanaga was the central figure of the game, posting a model-leading +26.3% WPA from the mound. He repeatedly extinguished Reds rallies before they could develop, with TJ Friedl's pop out in the second inning representing a swing of -11.2% in Cincinnati's favor and Friedl's strikeout in the seventh costing the Reds another -9.5%. Jeimer Candelario's first-inning strikeout against Imanaga carried a -8.0% swing, illustrating how thoroughly the Cubs starter suppressed the lineup in key moments. Mark Leiter Jr. added +19.5% WPA in relief, and Carson Spiers contributed +6.7% as Chicago's bullpen held firm the rest of the way.

On the offensive side, Santiago Espinal was the Cubs' standout contributor, finishing with a combined +23.5% WPA across his appearances. His seventh-inning single generated a +10.7% swing, and a ninth-inning groundout that ended what remained of Cincinnati's hopes registered +14.4% — a somewhat counterintuitive figure that reflected just how thoroughly the game situation had collapsed for the Reds by that point. Ian Happ added +8.5% WPA with a strong +1.8 RE24, and Luke Maile contributed +6.1% WPA to round out a well-distributed Cubs effort. Chicago's 11 hits to Cincinnati's five told the story of a game the Cubs controlled from the opening frame.