Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 7-2 at London Stadium on June 8, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided by a six-run fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Mets a 27% chance of winning, and that slim margin evaporated almost entirely in that single frame. The decisive blow came from Whit Merrifield, whose fourth-inning home run off Sean Manaea swung win probability by 28.7 percentage points, the single largest play of the contest. Bryce Harper followed with another home run off Manaea in the same inning, adding another 11.4 percentage points. By the time the fourth inning ended, the model's estimate of a Mets victory had collapsed to near zero, where it remained for the rest of the game.

Merrifield finished as the top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a plus-27.5% win probability figure and a RE24 of plus-2.4 across his contributions. Harper added plus-11.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4, making him the second most impactful bat on the night. The Mets did generate some offense, as Pete Alonso's fifth-inning double off Ranger Suarez moved the needle 8.6 percentage points in New York's favor, and Alonso finished with plus-7.5% WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8. However, the Mets could not sustain any rally, and their lone other run came in the fifth inning. Philadelphia's bullpen did its part to protect the lead, with Orion Kerkering contributing plus-6.0% WPA and Adrian Houser adding plus-2.8%, helping the Phillies hold New York to two runs on ten hits while committing no errors.