Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Chicago Cubs 4-3 on June 8, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 56% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The Reds built their margin early, scoring once in the first and twice in the third, the latter frame defined by TJ Friedl's home run off Ben Brown, a swing that added 18.1% in win probability and proved to be the decisive blow of the evening. Cincinnati added an insurance run in the fifth, and while Chicago chipped away with single runs in the sixth and eighth — the eighth highlighted by Michael Busch's double off Fernando Cruz, which swung win probability 14.1% in the Cubs' favor — the Reds never relinquished the lead.

The ninth inning encapsulated the game's tension in compressed form. Dansby Swanson's single off Lucas Sims injected life into the Cubs' rally, adding 17.5% in win probability, but closer Justin Wilson shut the door emphatically. Mike Tauchman grounded out for a 12.7% probability swing against Chicago, and Ian Happ's pop out to end the game erased the final 20.4% of Cubs' hope, giving Wilson a commanding plus-33.1% WPA for the night. Friedl finished as the top offensive performer with a plus-22.1% WPA and a plus-2.0 RE24, while Swanson's late charge earned him plus-21.7% WPA in a losing effort. Andrew Abbott also contributed meaningfully for Cincinnati on the pitching side, posting plus-16.3% WPA to support Wilson's dominant finish.