Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 8-5 on June 7, 2024, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the home side a 67 percent win probability and closing at 100 percent as St. Louis pulled away late. The Cardinals scored in three separate bursts — a three-run first inning, a single run in the second, a run in the sixth, and a decisive three-run eighth — while Colorado's most meaningful offensive contribution came in a four-run fourth inning that briefly flipped momentum before St. Louis reasserted control.

The play with the largest single win-probability swing belonged to Colorado's Michael Toglia, whose triple off Lance Lynn in the top of the fourth added 30.1 percent to the Rockies' win probability, the defining moment of their brief charge. Alan Trejo added a single off Kyle Leahy in the fifth worth 10.3 percent, but those gains proved temporary. St. Louis responded with a Dylan Carlson single off Anthony Molina in the sixth, worth 11.2 percent, and then the Cardinals put the game away in the eighth against Matt Carasiti, with Brendan Donovan delivering a single that added 22.2 percent and Carlson following with a double worth an additional 10.9 percent.

Among the game's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Toglia led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7 despite being on the losing side. For St. Louis, Donovan finished at plus-20.9 percent WPA and Carlson at plus-19.7 percent WPA with an RE24 of plus-1.7, making the two Cardinals the central figures in the comeback. Out of the bullpen, JoJo Romero led St. Louis pitchers with plus-10.6 percent WPA, followed by Andrew Kittredge at plus-8.3 percent and John King at plus-6.0 percent, a trio that preserved the Cardinals' advantage through the final frames.