Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-2 on June 7, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent by game's end. The Reds built their margin early and held off a late Cubs push, with the decisive damage coming in the fourth and fifth innings against Cubs starter Justin Steele.

The swing of the game arrived in the bottom of the fourth, when Tyler Stephenson doubled off Steele for a shift of plus 20.4 percent in win probability, the largest single-play impact of the night. Stuart Fairchild added a single in the bottom of the fifth off Steele for another 7.8 percent swing, pushing Cincinnati to a 3-0 lead through five innings. Chicago's most significant response came from Dansby Swanson, whose home run off Nick Lodolo in the top of the sixth registered a plus 8.3 percent win-probability swing, cutting the deficit to 3-1. The Cubs added one more run in the ninth, but it came too late to threaten the outcome. The most damaging Cubs plate appearance by win-probability impact was Cody Bellinger's pop out off Lodolo in the fifth, a minus 9.6 percent swing that extinguished a potential rally.

Stephenson finished as the top performer of the night by WPA, finishing at plus 17.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, anchoring the Reds offense. On the mound, Lodolo led all pitchers with a plus 16.8 percent WPA, followed by relievers Justin Wilson at plus 8.1 percent and Nick Martinez at plus 7.2 percent, a trio that collectively shut down the Cubs after the Swanson home run. Mike Tauchman contributed a single off Wilson in the eighth for a plus 7.1 percent swing, the Cubs' most productive late-inning moment, but Cincinnati's pitching staff allowed nothing further.