Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-4 at Great American Ball Park on June 6, 2024, handing Chicago a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win shifted from 52 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The game was largely decided across two innings, the third and the sixth, where both clubs exchanged home runs but the Reds consistently held the upper hand in leverage.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third when Elly De La Cruz connected for a home run off Javier Assad, a swing that added 21.6 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and represented the single most impactful play of the contest. The Cubs had drawn first blood in that same inning on a Seiya Suzuki home run off Hunter Greene, a blow worth 18.1 percent in win probability, but De La Cruz's answer, combined with a three-run Reds frame, kept Cincinnati in command. The sixth inning followed a similar script: Christopher Morel launched a home run off Hunter Greene that added 18.8 percent for Chicago, briefly tightening the game, only for a TJ Friedl double off Luke Little in the bottom half to swing probability back 14.3 percent in Cincinnati's favor. Will Benson then added a run-scoring single off Kyle Hendricks in the seventh, a 11.2 percent swing that effectively closed the door.

Among individual performers, TJ Friedl finished as the game's top batter by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-17.6 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Christopher Morel led Cubs hitters with a WPA of plus-17.4 and a RE24 of plus-1.2 despite ending up on the losing side. Jonathan India contributed plus-13.8 percent WPA for Cincinnati, reinforcing the Reds' offensive depth on the night. In relief, Fernando Cruz was the most impactful arm, finishing with a WPA of plus-4.0 percent to help Cincinnati preserve the four-run final margin.