Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-1 at Yankee Stadium on June 4, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 68 percent pre-game home win probability and closing at 100 percent as New York built a methodical lead that Minnesota never seriously threatened.

The game's most consequential single moment came in the bottom of the third inning, when Aaron Judge doubled off Bailey Ober, a play that shifted win probability by plus-14.3 percent in New York's favor. Ober had already been touched for a Gleyber Torres home run in the second, a swing worth plus-7.8 percent, and those two plays off the Minnesota starter effectively framed the outcome before the middle innings arrived. Minnesota's most meaningful counter came in the top of the seventh, when Royce Lewis connected for a home run off Tommy Kahnle, a plus-8.6 percent swing that accounted for the Twins' lone run, though it did little to alter the game's trajectory. Giancarlo Stanton added a home run in the eighth off Caleb Thielbar, worth plus-8.1 percent, that closed the door on any remaining possibility of a Twins rally.

Among individual performers, Judge led all batters by the DiamondIQ model's accounting with plus-14.5 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Lewis was the game's second-most impactful batter at plus-11.1 percent WPA despite playing for the losing side. Torres contributed plus-6.5 percent WPA for New York. On the mound, Luis Gil was the standout, posting plus-15.4 percent WPA as Minnesota managed only two hits on the night and saw a Christian Vázquez ground into a double play in the fifth that cost the Twins minus-5.2 percent in win probability. Ian Hamilton added plus-8.1 percent in relief to round out a dominant Yankees pitching effort.