Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Colorado Rockies a 4-1 defeat at Coors Field on June 4, 2024, holding a team that the DiamondIQ model gave a 43 percent pre-game win probability to a single late run. Cincinnati collected 12 hits against just three for Colorado, and despite committing three errors, the Reds built an early cushion that proved more than enough. The Rockies never led, and by the final out the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win had fallen to zero percent.

The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings against Rockies starter Ty Blach. Elly De La Cruz delivered the game's single biggest swing, a third-inning home run off Blach that shifted win probability 10.4 percent in Cincinnati's favor. The fourth inning compounded the damage, with Stuart Fairchild following up a two-run frame with a single that added another 8.9 percent, and Luke Maile extending the inning further with a single worth 6.5 percent. When the dust settled on those two innings, the Reds held a 4-0 lead that Colorado never threatened in any meaningful way. Elias Díaz did double off Frankie Montas in the seventh to provide some hope, a swing of 5.3 percent, but it went for nothing, and Elehuris Montero's flyout to end the ninth actually moved the needle 6.3 percent back toward Cincinnati.

Fairchild led all position players with a WPA of plus-7.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while De La Cruz contributed plus-4.9 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.8, a reflection of how his home run stood alone as the signature moment of his inning. Maile added plus-4.2 WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 in a complementary role. On the mound, Frankie Montas was the story, posting a commanding plus-27.9 WPA to pace all pitchers and anchor a Cincinnati staff that limited Colorado to three hits across nine innings.