San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the San Francisco Giants 4-2 at Chase Field on June 3, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability beginning the game at 53 percent and closing at 100 percent. Arizona scored in the second inning to build an early cushion, but the Giants kept themselves in the game through the middle frames before the two clubs traded runs in a decisive final act that sealed the outcome.

The game's pivotal sequences were concentrated in the seventh and ninth innings. Heliot Ramos gave San Francisco a temporary lift with a home run off Ryne Nelson in the top of the seventh, a swing worth plus 15.8 percent in win probability that represented the Giants' most significant momentum shift of the night. However, the Diamondbacks answered emphatically in the bottom of the ninth, when Pavin Smith launched a home run off Randy Rodríguez that carried the largest single-play win-probability swing of the contest at plus 29.4 percent. A Jake McCarthy double off Rodríguez in that same inning, worth plus 12.0 percent, added further separation. San Francisco's chances had already been dimmed by a Trenton Brooks double-play grounder in the eighth, costing the Giants 14.9 percent in win probability, and a Jorge Soler groundout to open the ninth that bled another 12.8 percent.

Among the standout performers, Smith led all batters with a combined plus 29.4 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, his home run proving to be the knockout blow. Ramos finished with the second-highest batting WPA at plus 20.2 percent despite being on the losing side, while Brett Wisely contributed plus 7.9 percent for San Francisco. On the mound, Ryne Nelson paced Arizona's pitching staff with plus 18.5 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Thompson at plus 15.9 percent and Tyler Rogers at plus 10.9 percent, a trio that collectively neutralized whatever threat the Giants managed to construct across nine innings.