Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 3-1 on June 3, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate foresaw with reasonable confidence, assigning Philadelphia a 63% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The Phillies built their advantage early, with Edmundo Sosa delivering a key single in the second inning off Bryse Wilson that added 7.2% to Philadelphia's win probability as part of a two-run frame. David Dahl extended the lead with a solo home run in the fourth, also off Wilson, swinging the win probability an additional 8.5% in the Phillies' favor and giving the home side a cushion they would not relinquish.
Milwaukee's path to a comeback was repeatedly blocked by Zack Wheeler, who was the single most impactful performer of the night at plus-16.0% WPA. The Brewers' two most damaging at-bats came courtesy of their own hitters, as Brice Turang grounded into a double play in the third inning that cost Milwaukee 13.9% in win probability, followed by William Contreras doing the same in the sixth for a loss of 8.5%. Both rallies died on Wheeler's terms. When Milwaukee finally broke through for a run in the seventh on a Rhys Hoskins home run off Wheeler, the 7.9% swing it produced was notable but far too late to threaten a deficit the Phillies had carefully constructed over the middle innings.
On the individual side, Rhys Hoskins led all batters at plus-13.6% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, though his contributions came primarily on the defensive side of the ledger as the Phillies' hitter of record in a losing cause for Milwaukee. David Dahl posted plus-8.6% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24, while Johan Rojas contributed plus-6.9% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in a complementary role. Jeff Hoffman and José Alvarado added plus-8.1% and plus-6.3% WPA respectively out of the bullpen, helping Wheeler's strong start translate cleanly into a Phillies victory with a clean 7-hit, no-error effort from the Philadelphia side.