New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the San Francisco Giants 7-5 at Oracle Park on June 2, 2024, capping a dramatic comeback with a four-run ninth inning against closer Camilo Doval. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving the Giants a 67% win probability, and San Francisco appeared to be holding serve through eight innings with a 5-3 lead. That edge evaporated entirely in the ninth, as the model's estimate swung from a Giants-favoring position to a final home win probability of zero.

The decisive sequence came against Doval in the top of the ninth. Juan Soto delivered the single most impactful play of the game, depositing a home run that shifted win probability by 48.9 percentage points in New York's favor and left Soto as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-45.7% and an RE24 of plus-2.1. Anthony Volpe followed with a triple that added another 26.1 percentage points of swing, finishing the night at plus-20.9% WPA. Earlier, Alex Verdugo had kept the Yankees in contention with a fifth-inning double off Erik Miller that produced an 18.2-point WPA swing, bridging the gap before the final burst. On the Giants' side, Heliot Ramos generated the most consequential offensive moment for San Francisco, his sixth-inning single off Dennis Santana adding 21.3 percentage points and contributing to a final WPA line of plus-30.1% with an RE24 of plus-2.0.

Among the pitchers, Blake Snell was the top contributor by WPA on the Giants' staff at plus-15.5%, while Tyler Rogers and Ryan Walker posted plus-8.1% and plus-7.2% respectively. Clay Holmes closed out the bottom of the ninth for New York, inducing a lineout from Matt Chapman that represented a 14.4-point swing in the Yankees' favor and sealed the final out. The model had favored San Francisco heading into the evening, but the Yankees' late offensive surge, anchored by Soto's ninth-inning home run, rendered that pre-game lean irrelevant by the final out.