Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Chicago Cubs a 5-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on June 2, 2024, doing the bulk of their damage in a decisive second inning that effectively turned the game. The DiamondIQ model entered with the Cubs holding a 58% pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out. Cincinnati put up four runs in the top of the second and added a solo run in the third, building a 5-0 cushion that Chicago's offense could never seriously threaten. The Cubs managed just two runs across the fifth and sixth innings despite collecting eight hits on the night, never mounting a sustained rally against a Reds pitching staff that kept them off-balance throughout.
The second inning was the pivot point of the game, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability tracking reflects just how decisive those few at-bats were. TJ Friedl's home run off Ben Brown in the top of the second was the single most impactful offensive play of the game, shifting win probability by plus-11.5 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. That swing was matched almost perfectly by David Bote's pop out in the bottom half, a minus-11.5 swing that extinguished Chicago's best chance to respond. Elly De La Cruz followed Friedl with a strikeout that registered as a plus-9.7 percentage point swing for the Reds, a reflection of how loaded the inning was and how much leverage Chicago was bleeding away with each out.
On the mound, Nick Lodolo was the standout performer of the evening, accumulating plus-19.8 percentage points of win-probability added to lead all pitchers. Nick Martinez contributed plus-11.5 as well, with Kyle Hendricks providing a modest plus-3.7 for Chicago in a losing effort. Among position players, Friedl led all batters at plus-10.2 WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Seiya Suzuki's plus-8.3 WPA was notable given his relatively quiet RE24 of plus-0.2, indicating he contributed in high-leverage moments. Jake Fraley rounded out Cincinnati's top performers with plus-6.9 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 as the Reds rolled to a clean, error-free road victory.