San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals walked off the San Diego Padres 4-3 on June 2, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium in a game that remained tightly contested before unraveling dramatically in the bottom of the ninth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 61 percent pre-game home win probability for Kansas City, and that figure climbed to 100 percent by the time the final out was recorded. San Diego had actually taken a 3-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, having scored two runs in the top of the eighth on singles by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado off Angel Zerpa, plays that added 16.3 and 14.7 percentage points of win probability respectively. Those hits appeared to put the Padres in command, but Yuki Matsui could not hold the lead when Kansas City came to bat in the ninth.
The decisive sequence began when Salvador Perez drew a walk off Matsui, a plate appearance worth plus 11.4 percentage points of win probability as the Royals began to stir. The inning then turned entirely on Nelson Velázquez, whose triple off Matsui shifted win probability by plus 64.8 percentage points in a single swing, clearing the bases and giving Kansas City the lead for good. Velázquez finished as the game's most impactful batter with a WPA of plus 64.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.9. Tatis Jr. was the top performer for San Diego by WPA at plus 11.8 percent, though his efforts ultimately went to waste.
On the pitching side, Michael King led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 30.6 percent for the Padres, keeping Kansas City in check through much of the game, while Enyel De Los Santos added plus 13.3 percent and James McArthur contributed plus 11.6 percent for the Royals. A costly moment for San Diego came in the top of the seventh when Luis Campusano grounded into a double play off John Schreiber, a sequence that cost the Padres 12.2 percentage points of win probability and stalled what could have been a decisive rally before their eighth-inning push. The Royals, who collected seven hits to San Diego's ten, needed only one of them to matter most.