New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-2 at Oracle Park on May 31, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close after the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model had entered the day giving the Giants a 36 percent chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the contest.

Aaron Judge was the decisive force, delivering two home runs off Jordan Hicks that together shifted win probability by 33.7 percentage points in the Yankees' favor. The first, a third-inning blast worth +24.1 percent in win-probability added, broke a scoreless tie and put New York firmly in command. Judge returned in the sixth inning to add a second home run off Hicks, a swing worth another +9.6 percent, effectively ending any realistic path back for San Francisco. His combined line of +33.7 percent WPA and +3.2 RE24 made him the single most impactful player on either side of the box score. The Giants' best moments came from Patrick Bailey, whose second-inning fielder's choice contributed +6.1 percent in win probability and whose overall night totaled +16.2 percent WPA and +1.2 RE24, though San Francisco's offense could not sustain any rally. A fifth-inning double play by Jorge Soler, which cost the Giants 10.4 percent in win probability off Marcus Stroman, further illustrated how San Francisco squandered its opportunities. Stroman was the top-performing pitcher by WPA at +9.3 percent, but the Giants' two errors and inability to answer Judge's power proved insurmountable.