Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held on to defeat the Chicago Cubs 5-4 at Wrigley Field on May 31, 2024, completing a comeback that erased what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 58 percent pre-game probability of a Cubs victory. The Reds spotted Chicago a 2-0 lead after Ian Happ's second-inning home run off Graham Ashcraft, a swing that shifted win probability 11.5 points in the Cubs' favor. Cincinnati answered in the fourth with two runs, then delivered the decisive blow in the seventh when Santiago Espinal launched a home run off Drew Smyly, a play that swung win probability 24.8 points toward the Reds and put them ahead by two. The Cubs pulled within one in the ninth on a Patrick Wisdom RBI, setting up a tense final frame, but Cincinnati's bullpen refused to yield the lead the rest of the way.

The final three outs told the story most clearly. With the Cubs trailing by one in the ninth, Alexis Díaz induced a flyout from Cody Bellinger that registered a 31.6-point swing in Cincinnati's favor — the single largest win-probability shift of the game — effectively sealing the outcome. Just before that, a Seiya Suzuki double off Díaz had moved the needle 15.1 points toward Chicago, keeping the threat alive momentarily. Lucas Sims was central to Cincinnati's late-game control, generating a 16.5-point swing when he induced a Dansby Swanson groundout in the eighth, and he finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-23.3 points. Tyson Miller and Sam Moll contributed plus-12.9 and plus-9.7 points respectively, anchoring a bullpen effort that held firm as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory fell from 58 percent before first pitch to zero percent at the final out.