Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Washington Nationals 7-1 on May 31, 2024, at Progressive Field, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 73% home win probability, which climbed to 100% by the final out. Cleveland's offense did its damage in concentrated bursts, with the third and seventh innings doing the bulk of the work in what became a comfortable wire-to-wire victory for the home side.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third, when Tyler Freeman delivered a single off Patrick Corbin that registered a +12.4% swing in win probability, helping Cleveland build an early two-run cushion. Washington briefly threatened to reframe the game in the top of the seventh, as Eddie Rosario's double off Tanner Bibee produced the largest single play swing of the night at +15.4% from the Nationals' perspective. That momentum proved short-lived. David Fry answered immediately with a home run off Robert Garcia in the bottom half of the inning, swinging win probability back toward Cleveland by +13.0%, and Freeman followed with another key single that added another +6.3% to seal the frame and the outcome.

Freeman led all position players with a combined +17.6% WPA and a RE24 of +1.2, while Fry posted the most run-context impact of the night with a RE24 of +2.4 to go alongside his +11.3% WPA. Rosario was the lone Washington bright spot by these measures at +11.7% WPA. On the mound, reliever Cade Smith was Cleveland's most impactful arm with +11.3% WPA, and Corbin, despite absorbing the early damage, finished with a WPA of +10.3% for Washington, reflecting some effective moments against the Cleveland lineup.