Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets held off the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-9 on May 31, 2024, at Citi Field in a game that was largely decided before the middle innings despite a late Arizona push. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with the Mets as a modest 52 percent pregame favorite and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the game's critical junctures even as the Diamondbacks rallied for four runs in the ninth to make the final margin respectable.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fourth inning, where the Mets built on an early 4-3 lead with a three-run frame against Jordan Montgomery. Pete Alonso's double shifted the win probability by 8.1 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and Starling Marte followed with a single that added another 7.4 percent. J.D. Martinez extended New York's cushion with a home run off Logan Allen in the sixth, a swing worth 6.6 percent in win probability. On the Arizona side, a Eugenio Suárez flyout in the first shifted the model's estimate 6.2 percent in the Mets' favor, and a Joc Pederson catcher interference in the third off Luis Severino added another 5.9 percent, highlighting how frequently Arizona's early opportunities dissolved before runs could materialize.

Martinez led all players with a cumulative WPA of plus-12.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Marte and Eugenio Suárez each finished at plus-9.2 percent in win probability added, with Marte posting the higher run-expectancy contribution at plus-2.2. Luis Severino worked through early traffic against the Diamondbacks, and the Mets bullpen closed it out efficiently, with Dedniel Núñez, Reed Garrett, and Jake Diekman contributing positive WPA figures of plus-2.4, plus-1.6, and plus-1.4 respectively, preserving the one-run advantage as Arizona scratched across its four ninth-inning runs against an outcome that was already effectively settled.