St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park on May 31, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 73 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent by game's end. The outcome was largely settled in the second inning, when Edmundo Sosa connected on a home run off Miles Mikolas for a swing of plus 11.5 percent win probability, and Nick Castellanos followed with a double worth plus 6.0 percent, giving Philadelphia a three-run frame that established the foundation for the victory. The Cardinals managed just three hits on the night and never seriously threatened to overturn the deficit.
St. Louis offered its most consequential resistance in the top of the third, when Brandon Crawford launched a home run off Aaron Nola for a plus 8.5 percent win-probability swing, and again in the seventh, when Nolan Arenado connected for a solo shot also against Nola, worth plus 13.2 percent. Those were the only runs the Cardinals could generate. Philadelphia answered in the bottom of the seventh when Johan Rojas delivered a single off Kyle Leahy that added plus 11.2 percent win probability and effectively closed the door on any Cardinal comeback.
Among individual performers, Rojas finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 11.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.5, while Crawford posted plus 10.0 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 despite pitching for the losing side. Arenado led all Cardinals with plus 9.1 percent WPA. In the Philadelphia bullpen, José Alvarado was the most impactful arm at plus 8.1 percent WPA, followed by Jeff Hoffman at plus 6.3 percent and Matt Strahm at plus 4.4 percent, as the trio secured the final innings for the Phillies win.