Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-4 on May 30, 2024, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64 percent pre-game home win probability to 100 percent certainty by the final out. Milwaukee built an early cushion with a three-run second inning before Chicago clawed back, but the Brewers ultimately controlled the game's most decisive moments to secure the win.
The swing plays told the story. Seiya Suzuki's seventh-inning home run off Bryan Hudson shifted win probability 24.3 percent in Chicago's favor, briefly threatening a Cubs comeback. Brice Turang answered immediately in the bottom half with a single off Mark Leiter Jr. that swung momentum back toward Milwaukee by 17.2 percent. The back-and-forth continued in the eighth, when Christopher Morel connected off Hudson again for a home run that moved the Cubs' win probability up 19.0 percent. Gary Sánchez then delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Tyson Miller in the bottom of the eighth that registered as the single largest swing of the game at plus 32.1 percent, effectively putting the result beyond reach. Owen Miller's ground into a double play in that same inning, costing Chicago 14.5 percent in win probability, extinguished the Cubs' last meaningful threat.
Sánchez finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 30.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Morel posted plus 22.1 percent WPA and Suzuki added plus 19.7 percent despite being on the losing side. On the pitching front, Joel Payamps led Milwaukee's bullpen contributors with plus 7.9 percent WPA, followed by Colin Rea at plus 7.2 percent and Elvis Peguero at plus 6.3 percent, as the three combined to preserve the Brewers' lead through the final frames.