St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on May 29, 2024, holding a lead that proved durable despite a late Cincinnati push. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Reds a 47% chance of winning at home, but that probability collapsed to 0% by the final out. St. Louis built its advantage gradually, scoring in the third and fourth innings while Cincinnati's offense remained quiet through the first six frames. Nolan Gorman's double in the top of the fourth, the third-most impactful play of the game by win probability, added 11.8 percentage points to the Cardinals' chances off Frankie Montas and helped establish the cushion that St. Louis would protect into the late innings.
Cincinnati mounted a credible comeback attempt beginning in the seventh, when Jonathan India's single off Kyle Leahy moved the needle 10.6 points in the Reds' favor. India was Cincinnati's most valuable offensive contributor on the night, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-21.2% and a RE24 of plus-1.6. In the eighth, Jeimer Candelario's double off Andrew Kittredge delivered the game's single largest win-probability swing, adding 14.5 points and making the ninth inning consequential. Elly De La Cruz kept hopes alive in the ninth with a forceout off Ryan Helsley worth 12.0 points, but Tyler Stephenson's sacrifice fly in the same frame swung 11.4 points back toward St. Louis, effectively sealing the outcome.
On the mound, Andre Pallante was the Cardinals' most decisive contributor, accumulating a game-high plus-25.5% WPA and doing the heavy lifting in preserving the lead. John King added plus-9.5% WPA in relief, and Lucas Sims contributed plus-1.8%. Gorman finished as St. Louis's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-19.5% with a RE24 of plus-1.0. The Cardinals collected 12 hits against Cincinnati's 8, and though the Reds made a genuine late push, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Cincinnati's chances never recovered enough to threaten the final result.