MLB Recap · May 28, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

PIT10
Final
DET2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT00310121210130
DET010001000240

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates routed the Detroit Tigers 10-2 at Comerica Park on May 28, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close after the third inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Detroit holding a 57% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Pittsburgh methodically dismantled the Tigers with 13 hits and no errors across nine innings.

The decisive blow came in the top of the third, when Andrew McCutchen connected on a home run off Keider Montero that swung win probability by 27.0 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor, essentially turning a competitive game into a rout. Nick Gonzales added to Montero's misery in the fourth with another home run, good for an 8.9-point swing, and McCutchen came back in the seventh with a double off Joey Wentz worth an additional 4.4 points. Detroit's lone bright spot by win probability came in the bottom of the sixth, when Matt Vierling hit a home run off Paul Skenes for a 6.5-point swing, though it did little to alter the game's trajectory. A Grant Koch strikeout in the third represented Pittsburgh's most costly at-bat of the night at negative 4.7 points.

McCutchen finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-32.7% and an RE24 of plus-4.7. Nick Gonzales contributed plus-11.7% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Connor Joe added plus-6.2% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Paul Skenes led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with a plus-11.8% WPA, followed by Aroldis Chapman at plus-1.7%.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalDET win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 56.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Andrew McCutchen Home Run
Top 3rd · off Keider Montero
+27.0%
Nick Gonzales Home Run
Top 4th · off Keider Montero
+8.9%
Matt Vierling Home Run
Bot 6th · off Paul Skenes
+6.5%
Grant Koch Strikeout
Top 3rd · off Keider Montero
-4.7%
Andrew McCutchen Double
Top 7th · off Joey Wentz
+4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Andrew McCutchen+32.7%+4.7 RE24
Nick Gonzales+11.7%+1.8 RE24
Connor Joe+6.2%+1.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →