Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 5, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win climbing from a pre-game 54 percent to a final 100 percent as the afternoon unfolded. St. Louis broke the game open with a four-run third inning that proved to be the decisive frame, Dylan Carlson's double off Aaron Rozek serving as the key blow of that rally. Carlson finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus 11.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Jose F Miranda led the Minnesota side with a plus 11.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0.
The seventh inning brought the game's sharpest win-probability swings. Minnesota mounted a threat against Andre Pallante, with Emmanuel Rodriguez delivering a single worth plus 12.4 percent in win probability and Jose F Miranda following with a single worth plus 10.9 percent. The rally stalled, however, when Niko Goodrum hit into a double play that swung win probability by minus 20.3 percent, the single most damaging play of the game by that measure. A Yunior Severino groundout compounded the damage at minus 10.4 percent, effectively ending any realistic Minnesota comeback.
On the mound, Max Rajcic led all pitchers with a plus 15.2 percent WPA, followed by Nick Robertson at plus 10.8 percent and Jeff Brigham at plus 5.4 percent, giving the Cardinals bullpen the clearest edge in strand rate and leverage management across the final innings. Minnesota finished with one error alongside their eight hits, a costly miscue on a day when the Cardinals needed every advantage to protect their slim run differential.