Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Detroit Tigers 3-0 on March 5, 2024, at CoolToday Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54% pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100%. Atlanta's pitching staff controlled Detroit throughout, holding the Tigers to six hits while committing no errors, while Detroit's defense contributed three errors in a game that was never particularly close despite the scoring being concentrated in just two innings. The Braves broke through in the bottom of the sixth with their first run, then added two more in the bottom of the eighth to put the game away.

The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the eighth, when Phillip Evans delivered a single off Sean Guenther that added 12.2% to Atlanta's win probability, the largest single-play swing of the game. Evans finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-14.3% with an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Ryan Kreidler contributed plus-8.5% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, and TJ Hopkins added plus-6.9% WPA on a sixth-inning double off Charlie Morton in the top of the seventh. On the Detroit side, the most damaging moment came in the top of the sixth when Justyn-Henry Malloy grounded into a double play off Morton, costing the Tigers 10.6% in win probability, compounding an earlier minus-8.5% swing when Marcell Ozuna hit into a double play in the fourth.

Atlanta's starting pitching was the foundation of the victory. Charlie Morton led all pitchers with plus-16.5% WPA, followed by Spencer Strider at plus-13.9% and Reese Olson at plus-12.0%, a collective performance that kept Detroit's lineup in check across the full nine innings and validated the model's pre-game lean toward the Braves.