Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Texas Rangers outlasted the Seattle Mariners 10-9 at Peoria Stadium on March 5, 2024, in a game that shifted dramatically in the final inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Seattle entering the day as a slight favorite at 54% pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Texas seized control late.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth, where Davis Wendzel delivered a single off Brett de Geus that swung win probability by 39.4 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Blaine Crim followed with another single off de Geus, adding a further 21.2 percentage points to Texas's chances and helping the Rangers push across what proved to be the decisive runs. Seattle had threatened to keep pace throughout, most notably in the fourth inning when Mitch Garver connected on a home run off Cole Winn, a swing that shifted win probability 27.4 points in Seattle's favor, and in the sixth when an Alberto Rodriguez fielding error off Danny Duffy added another 23.9 points for the Mariners. Ultimately, though, the Mariners went quietly in the bottom of the ninth, as Ben Ramirez struck out against Reid Birlingmair, a result that added 31.6 points to Texas's final margin of victory.

Wendzel finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 47.2%, paired with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Crim posted a plus 35.3% WPA and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 1.7. On the pitching side, Troy Taylor led Rangers relievers with a plus 10.8% WPA contribution, followed by Owen White at plus 7.3% and Gabe Speier at plus 6.4%, as Texas's bullpen ultimately held the slim lead through the final outs.