San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the San Diego Padres 5-3 on March 5, 2024, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent as Arizona pulled away through the middle innings. San Diego committed three errors compared to none for the Diamondbacks, a disparity that contributed to the uneven texture of the game. Arizona built its decisive advantage in the third inning, scoring four runs in the bottom half of the frame, while the Padres managed two in the fourth and one in the sixth but could never fully close the gap.

The swing of the game turned on a handful of high-leverage moments. Eugenio Suárez delivered the single biggest play of the afternoon, a home run off Pedro Avila in the bottom of the third that added 13.6 percentage points to Arizona's win probability. Tyler Wade answered in the top of the fourth with a single off Ryne Nelson that swung win probability 12.4 points toward San Diego, briefly keeping the Padres within reach. From there, however, San Diego's late-game opportunities dried up. Kevin Plawecki's pop out in the top of the seventh off Joe Mantiply cost the Padres 12.2 percentage points, and Homer Bush Jr.'s strikeout against Andrew Saalfrank in the ninth removed another 8.1 points from their remaining chances.

Suárez finished as the game's top performer by overall win-probability contribution at plus-15.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.6, reflecting the outsized impact of his third-inning home run on the final outcome. Wade was close behind at plus-14.2 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, and Graham Pauley added plus-9.9 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.0 on the San Diego side. On the mound, Arizona's bullpen trio of Justin Martinez, Scott McGough, and Joe Mantiply collectively preserved the lead, contributing plus-8.5, plus-8.1, and plus-7.2 percent WPA respectively, holding San Diego to nothing after the sixth inning.