Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles edged the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 on March 5, 2024, at BayCare Ballpark, handing Philadelphia a loss despite the Phillies entering with a 54% home win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Baltimore scored first in the top of the first, surrendered a Phillies run in the fourth, added another in the sixth on a Jordan Westburg double off Luis Ortiz that shifted win probability by 8.3 points in the Orioles' favor, and then both clubs traded runs in a tense ninth inning that settled the outcome. Baltimore finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while Philadelphia managed eight hits of their own but couldn't convert enough to hold serve at home.
The ninth inning was the game's most consequential stretch. Diego Castillo delivered a single off Tristan Garnett in the top half, a hit that added 8.8 percentage points of win probability for Baltimore and proved to be the decisive insurance run. Tucker Davidson then closed the door in the bottom half, and the biggest moment came when Cam Gallagher flew out with what appeared to be a final Philadelphia threat on hand, a play that registered a 21.4-point swing in win probability in Baltimore's favor as the Phillies' hopes evaporated. Garrett Stubbs had popped out earlier in the frame for an 8.4-point swing against Philadelphia, compounding the damage.
On the pitching side, Chayce McDermott was the game's most impactful arm by win probability, finishing with a 33.0-point contribution that included a critical strikeout of Ethan Wilson in the bottom of the eighth — a swing of 16.5 percentage points that kept Philadelphia from rallying. Albert Suárez added 17.6 points of win-probability value, and Max Castillo contributed 16.2. Among position players, Gallagher led with a 10.6-point WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.9, while Jake Cave posted both a 10.0-point WPA and a positive 1.0 RE24, reflecting his broader situational contribution to the Orioles' narrow road victory.