Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-1 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 5, 2024, holding Seattle to just five hits and one error while the Guardians collected nine hits without committing an error. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Cleveland, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Guardians steadily built their lead across the middle innings.

The decisive stretch came in the third through fifth innings, where Cleveland's offense did its most significant damage. Austin Hedges delivered a double off Casey Lawrence in the bottom of the third for a shift of plus 6.8 percent in win probability, and Jhonkensy Noel followed with a single off Lawrence worth an additional plus 6.7 percent. Ramón Laureano then added a home run off Kirby Snead in the fourth, the single biggest positive play of the game at plus 11.4 percent win probability. Will Brennan capped the Guardians' run production with a fifth-inning single off Sean Poppen that registered a plus 15.1 percent win-probability swing, the highest of any individual event on the evening. Seattle's lone run came in the opening frame, but the Mariners never threatened again in a meaningful way.

On the individual leaderboard, Brennan finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 16.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Laureano posted plus 12.3 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. Hedges contributed plus 7.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Joey Cantillo paced Cleveland's pitching staff with a plus 9.5 percent WPA contribution, followed by Nick Sandlin at plus 6.4 percent and Emmanuel Clase at plus 5.7 percent, as the Guardians' bullpen kept Seattle off the board from the second inning onward.