Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-0 on March 5, 2024, at Surprise Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Cubs managed just four hits against a Royals pitching staff that combined for a clean defensive performance, while Chicago's three errors compounded a completely scoreless afternoon at the plate.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh inning, when Tyler Gentry connected on a home run off Richard Lovelady that swung win probability by 23.7 percent in Kansas City's favor, effectively closing the door on any Cubs comeback. That single swing accounted for three of the Royals' four runs and represented the largest win-probability event of the game by a considerable margin. The Cubs had generated their most credible threat in the top of the fourth, when Michael Busch doubled off Will Smith to move the needle 7.0 percent in Chicago's direction, but the inning unraveled immediately afterward as a Kevin Alcántara pickoff at first base cost the Cubs 5.8 percent in win probability, followed by an Alexander Canario flyout and a Pete Crow-Armstrong forceout to strand any scoring opportunity.
Gentry finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-19.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Busch led Cubs batters at plus-4.8 percent. On the mound, Alec Marsh was the standout with a plus-22.2 percent WPA, outpacing Ben Brown at plus-9.8 percent and Brady Singer at plus-8.2 percent in a Royals pitching effort that held Chicago scoreless across all nine innings.