Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 13 | 19 | 1 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants handled the Milwaukee Brewers 13-8 at Scottsdale Stadium on March 5, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. San Francisco built its winning margin across two pivotal innings, scoring four runs in the third and six more in the fourth to effectively put the game away. Milwaukee managed to hang four runs on the board in the first inning and scattered additional runs across the middle and late innings, but the Brewers could never fully recover from the damage done in those back-to-back frames.
The fourth inning was where the game's largest single shifts in win probability occurred. Wilmer Flores delivered a double off Devin Williams that swung win probability by 15.3 points in San Francisco's favor, and Michael Conforto followed with another double off Williams, adding another 13.6 points. Those two swings alone accounted for nearly 29 combined percentage points of win-probability movement. The third inning was nearly as consequential, with Flores drawing a walk off Sam Carlson that shifted the model's estimate by 12.0 points, and Wade Meckler following with a single worth another 10.9 points. On the Milwaukee side, Luis Matos grounded into a pop out in the second inning off Jakob Junis, costing San Francisco 12.8 points in win probability and representing the most damaging moment for the Giants' offense.
Flores was the clear standout performer on the day, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-31.1 and an RE24 of plus-3.1, his double and walk in consecutive innings serving as the offensive spine of San Francisco's victory. Conforto contributed a WPA of plus-19.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, while Meckler added plus-15.1 WPA and plus-2.6 RE24. On the pitching side, Jakob Junis led San Francisco's staff with a WPA of plus-3.4, followed by Tanner Kiest at plus-2.8 and Taylor Rogers at plus-2.3.