Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-5 on March 5, 2024, at LECOM Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Pittsburgh winning climbing from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. The contest was largely quiet through six innings before both offenses came alive late, and the Pirates ultimately seized control in a decisive bottom of the eighth that swung the outcome irreversibly in their favor.

The bottom of the eighth was the defining sequence of the game. Liover Peguero delivered the most impactful single play of the night, connecting on a home run off Hayden Juenger that shifted win probability by plus 42.0 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, the largest swing of the contest. Peguero finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 48.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.2. Earlier, Tsung-Che Cheng had provided Pittsburgh a lift in the seventh with a home run off Ryan Jennings worth plus 18.5 percent in win probability, and Billy McKinney added to the eighth-inning damage with a walk off Ryan Jennings that moved the needle another plus 21.4 percent. Toronto had briefly threatened, as Miguel Hiraldo's single off Brent Honeywell in the top of the eighth registered plus 18.7 percent for the Blue Jays, but Jase Bowen's sacrifice fly double play in the bottom half erased momentum at minus 19.6 percent.

On the pitching side, Sean Sullivan led all pitchers by WPA at plus 15.2 percent, followed by José Berríos at plus 12.3 percent and Mitch White at plus 9.6 percent. Toronto finished with eight hits and one error against Pittsburgh's nine hits and clean fielding, but the Pirates' ability to cluster their damage in the seventh and eighth innings proved the difference in a game the DiamondIQ model ultimately gave entirely to the home side.