MLB Recap · March 4, 2024

New York Yankees at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

NYY3
Final
MIA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY000000300361
MIA000001010250

The Story

The New York Yankees defeated the Miami Marlins 3-2 on March 4, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, overcoming a late deficit in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a 54 percent home-team proposition before first pitch. The Yankees broke a scoreless tie with three runs in the seventh inning, only to watch Miami respond with single runs in the sixth and eighth to keep the margin tight. Neither team had put anything on the board through five innings, making the late-game sequences all the more consequential once the scoring finally began.

The decisive stretch unfolded across the game's final three innings. Josh Bell's double in the bottom of the sixth off Will Warren opened the scoring for Miami and represented a 16.1-point swing in the Marlins' favor, while Brandon Lockridge's single in the top of the seventh off Anthony Maldonado shifted the balance back toward New York by 16.5 points and helped trigger the Yankees' three-run frame. In the eighth, Dane Myers erased much of New York's cushion with a solo home run off Victor González, a swing worth 17.3 points for Miami. However, Jacob Amaya grounded out in the same inning at a cost of 12.9 points, blunting any further rally. The game's single largest play came in the bottom of the ninth, when Tristan Gray flew out against Anthony Misiewicz to end a threat and preserve the lead, a 27.0-point swing in New York's favor.

Among individual performers, Tristan Gray led all position players with a WPA of plus-24.3, largely on the strength of that final out. Lockridge contributed plus-15.3 WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0, reflecting his role in the pivotal seventh-inning sequence, while Myers posted plus-14.2 WPA for Miami despite finishing on the losing side. On the mound, Edward Cabrera led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-19.1, followed by Clarke Schmidt at plus-17.7 and Ian Hamilton at plus-8.8, a trio that collectively held Miami to two runs in a game where the DiamondIQ model closed with a zero percent home-win probability.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalMIA win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Tristan Gray Flyout
Bot 9th · off Anthony Misiewicz
+27.0%
Dane Myers Home Run
Bot 8th · off Victor González
+17.3%
Top 7th · off Anthony Maldonado
+16.5%
Josh Bell Double
Bot 6th · off Will Warren
+16.1%
Jacob Amaya Groundout
Bot 8th · off Victor González
-12.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Tristan Gray+24.3%-0.4 RE24
Brandon Lockridge+15.3%+1.0 RE24
Dane Myers+14.2%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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