Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-2 on March 4, 2024, at TD Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent as Toronto pulled away late. The Blue Jays collected seven hits against ten for Philadelphia, but Toronto was far more efficient with its opportunities, doing its most decisive damage in the bottom of the fifth inning against Phillies reliever Griff McGarry.

The fifth inning was the turning point. Bo Bichette's single off McGarry was the single most impactful plate appearance of the game, shifting win probability by plus 19.2 percent in Toronto's favor. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with a single of his own in the same frame, adding another 7.3 percent swing, as the Blue Jays plated three runs in that inning to take command. Philadelphia had briefly threatened in the top of the fourth, when Aramis Garcia doubled off Jordan Romano for a plus 10.8 percent swing and Bryson Stott tripled in the same at-bat sequence for another 9.8 percent, accounting for the Phillies' lone run of that half. Kody Clemens added a single off Chad Green in the seventh to push Philadelphia's deficit to one run in that frame, generating a 7.9 percent swing, but Toronto answered with a run of its own to maintain separation.

On the individual side, Bichette finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 16.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Clemens posted plus 11.7 percent WPA and a team-best plus 1.3 RE24 in a losing effort. Guerrero added plus 7.9 percent WPA and a plus 1.6 RE24. Toronto's bullpen was equally instrumental, with Trevor Richards leading pitchers at plus 9.3 percent WPA, followed by Yimi Garcia at plus 6.3 percent and Jose Ruiz at plus 5.7 percent, collectively preserving a lead the Blue Jays never relinquished after the fifth.