San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the San Francisco Giants 12-10 on March 4, 2024, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, rallying from an early deficit to pull away with a decisive seventh inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Colorado, and by the game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Rockies used a pair of high-leverage extra-base hits to put the contest out of reach.

The game's single most consequential play came in the bottom of the seventh, when Aaron Schunk doubled off José Cruz to swing win probability by 31.2 points in Colorado's favor, extending what had been a tightly contested game into a comfortable advantage. That moment built on a bottom-fifth double by Jordan Beck off Ben Madison, which had already shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 19.2 points after San Francisco had briefly appeared to seize control with a five-run fourth inning. Kris Bryant's home run off Erik Miller in the bottom of the fourth, worth 13.6 points of win probability, was the counterweight that kept Colorado close during that volatile frame. San Francisco's best chances to halt the Rockies were snuffed out in consecutive innings when Ismael Munguia grounded into a double play off Peter Lambert in the sixth, costing the Giants 12.6 points of win probability, and Chase Pinder flied out to Lambert in the seventh at a cost of 12.2 points.

On the individual ledger, Schunk led all position players with a plus-25.6 WPA and 1.9 RE24, while Beck posted plus-23.3 WPA and a game-best 2.0 RE24, and Sterlin Thompson added plus-19.4 WPA with a 1.5 RE24 contribution. Peter Lambert was the standout on the mound with a plus-15.4 WPA as Colorado's pitching staff absorbed what became a 15-hit Giants output while limiting the damage when it mattered most. Spencer Howard added plus-11.9 WPA and Cody Stashak contributed plus-7.1 to round out a bullpen effort that ultimately secured the two-run victory.