MLB Recap · March 4, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

AZ2
Final
CWS5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ0100000012101
CWS01210100-5100

The Story

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-2 at Camelback Ranch on March 4, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely from its 54% pre-game home win probability all the way to a final certainty of 100% for Chicago. The White Sox built their margin methodically, scoring in the second, third, fourth, and sixth innings while holding Arizona to single runs in the second and ninth.

The third inning proved to be the decisive stretch of the game. Eloy Jiménez delivered a single off Tommy Henry that shifted win probability 8.4 points in Chicago's favor, and Yoán Moncada followed with his own single for an additional 7.0-point swing. Luis Robert Jr. then grounded into a double play, costing the White Sox 6.4 percentage points and limiting further damage in the frame, but the runs that scored were enough to establish a lead Chicago never relinquished. In the seventh, Sheng-Ping Chen struck out against Justin Anderson in a moment that swung 6.8 points toward Chicago, effectively foreclosing Arizona's best chance at a comeback. Chen drew a walk off Tanner Banks in the ninth that added 7.0 points for the Diamondbacks, but the rally came too late.

Among the standout performers, Nicky Lopez led all batters with a WPA of plus 11.7 and an RE24 of plus 1.1, while Jiménez finished at plus 7.6 WPA and Moncada at plus 5.8. On the pitching side, Chris Flexen was the most impactful arm, posting a WPA of plus 10.7, with Jesse Chavez adding plus 5.0 and Dominic Leone contributing plus 4.8 in support. Arizona finished with 10 hits but committed one error and could not convert its offensive opportunities into runs at a comparable rate.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalCWS win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Eloy Jiménez Single
Bot 3rd · off Tommy Henry
+8.4%
Yoán Moncada Single
Bot 3rd · off Tommy Henry
+7.0%
Top 9th · off Tanner Banks
+7.0%
Sheng-Ping Chen Strikeout
Top 7th · off Justin Anderson
-6.8%
Luis Robert Jr. Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Tommy Henry
-6.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Nicky Lopez+11.7%+1.1 RE24
Eloy Jiménez+7.6%+0.8 RE24
Yoán Moncada+5.8%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →