Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego topped Chicago 2-1 at Peoria Stadium on March 4, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent as the Padres secured the low-scoring affair.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the fifth inning, when Garrett Cooper doubled off Matt Waldron to swing win probability 13.7 percent in Chicago's favor, the single largest momentum shift of the afternoon. That lead held briefly before San Diego reclaimed control in the bottom of the eighth, where Cal Mitchell singled off Chris Clarke for a 9.5 percent swing that proved decisive. Fernando Tatis Jr. set the tone earlier with a run-scoring single off Jordan Wicks in the third that moved the needle 7.3 percent toward the Padres. Chicago's best late threat came in the ninth, when Matt Shaw doubled off Wandy Peralta for a 7.9 percent gain, but David Bote's groundout against the same pitcher swung 10.9 percent back toward San Diego and ended the rally.

On the pitching side, Matt Waldron led all performers with a plus-20.0 percent WPA contribution, and Wandy Peralta added 15.2 percent in his closing work, with Jhony Brito contributing another 11.0 percent to round out a dominant Padres pitching effort. Offensively, Tatis led all batters at plus-11.1 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Cooper and Mitchell each checked in at plus-9.8 and plus-9.5 percent WPA respectively. Both clubs finished with nine hits apiece, but San Diego's timely pitching kept Chicago's nine hits from amounting to more than a single run, and the model leans toward crediting that pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome.