Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds rolled past the Oakland Athletics 15-8 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 4, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided by a dominant fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Cincinnati holding a 54 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded across the middle innings. Tyler Stephenson delivered a home run off Trevor Gott in the bottom of the fourth that swung win probability 18.0 points in Cincinnati's favor, then Christian Encarnacion-Strand had already set the tone earlier with a second-inning home run off Jack Cushing worth 14.2 percentage points. Oakland briefly applied pressure in the top of the fifth when Ryan Noda ripped a triple off Tejay Antone that added 12.2 points of win probability for the Athletics, but the Reds answered emphatically. Elly De La Cruz crushed a triple off Zach Jackson in the bottom half of that frame, the single most impactful play of the afternoon at plus-22.6 percentage points, capping a 10-run fifth inning that buried Oakland for good. Lawrence Butler's fourth-inning double off Alexis Diaz, worth 12.0 points, was the Athletics' other notable positive swing.

Among individual standouts, Stephenson led all position players with a WPA of plus-25.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.4, while Encarnacion-Strand posted a WPA of plus-23.6 and an RE24 of plus-3.6, the highest run-contribution figure of any batter. De La Cruz finished at plus-22.1 WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Luis Medina paced Cincinnati's staff with plus-6.6 WPA, followed by Lucas Erceg at plus-5.6. The final line told a telling story: Oakland out-hit Cincinnati 16 to 8 yet surrendered 15 runs while committing two errors, a combination the Reds exploited decisively in that pivotal fifth inning.