Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins played to a 4-4 tie on March 3, 2024, at Lee Health Sports Complex, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win beginning at 54 percent and ultimately settling at zero after neither side could push across a decisive run through nine innings. Minnesota built the early advantage, with Max Kepler's fourth-inning home run off Jacob Waguespack registering a swing of plus-17.3 percent in win probability and establishing the Twins as the controlling side through five frames. The Rays answered emphatically in the sixth, when Kameron Misner drew a walk off Ryan Jensen to extend the inning at plus-13.9 percent, and Ruben Cardenas followed with a single off Jensen that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-22.0 percent, fueling a four-run rally that erased Minnesota's lead entirely. Tampa Bay's Randy Arozarena had the game's most damaging negative moment earlier, a strikeout double play off Jhoan Duran in the third that cost the Rays 10.3 points of win probability.

The game's final tension centered on the bottom of the ninth, where Danny De Andrade's groundout off Joe Record carried a plus-14.0 percent swing, reflecting how close the Twins came to walking off before the at-bat resolved in Tampa Bay's favor and preserved the draw. Among position players, Cardenas finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-16.1 with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Kepler posted plus-13.6 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 to lead Minnesota's contributors. On the mound, Michael Boyle was the most impactful pitcher of the afternoon, accumulating plus-24.1 percent in win probability for Tampa Bay, with Zack Littell adding plus-12.0 and Antonio Jimenez contributing plus-10.9 to round out the Rays' most effective arms. The Twins finished with 13 hits to Tampa Bay's 12, but neither club could convert its opportunities into a winning margin across the full nine innings.