MLB Recap · March 3, 2024

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

SEA4
Final
SD12

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA020010100481
SD00325200-12140

The Story

The San Diego Padres routed the Seattle Mariners 12-4 on March 3, 2024, at Peoria Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. San Diego built its advantage steadily through the middle innings, and the game never appeared in serious doubt after the third inning.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the third, when Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing that shifted win probability by 21.5 percent and effectively set the game's tone. The Padres compounded the damage in the fourth, with Tyler Wade delivering a double off Carlos Vargas that moved the needle 12.2 percent, followed by a Tim Locastro single off the same pitcher adding another 7.3 percent. Ha-Seong Kim then added a home run off Collin Snider in the fifth for another 11.4 percent swing. Seattle's lone moment of traction came in the top of the second, when Cade Marlowe hit a home run off Yu Darvish for an 8.8 percent positive swing, but the Mariners could not sustain any pressure against a San Diego lineup that kept pulling away.

By cumulative WPA, Tatis Jr. finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-21.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Wade contributed plus-18.5 percent and a plus-2.1 RE24, and Locastro rounded out the top three at plus-14.9 percent and plus-2.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Nick Davila led San Diego's relievers with plus-4.5 percent WPA. Seattle finished with four runs on eight hits and one error, while San Diego posted 12 runs on 14 hits without committing an error.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalSD win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Luis Castillo
+21.5%
Tyler Wade Double
Bot 4th · off Carlos Vargas
+12.2%
Ha-Seong Kim Home Run
Bot 5th · off Collin Snider
+11.4%
Cade Marlowe Home Run
Top 2nd · off Yu Darvish
+8.8%
Tim Locastro Single
Bot 4th · off Carlos Vargas
+7.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Fernando Tatis Jr.+21.7%+2.2 RE24
Tyler Wade+18.5%+2.1 RE24
Tim Locastro+14.9%+2.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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