Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 12 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres routed the Seattle Mariners 12-4 on March 3, 2024, at Peoria Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. San Diego built its advantage steadily through the middle innings, and the game never appeared in serious doubt after the third inning.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the third, when Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing that shifted win probability by 21.5 percent and effectively set the game's tone. The Padres compounded the damage in the fourth, with Tyler Wade delivering a double off Carlos Vargas that moved the needle 12.2 percent, followed by a Tim Locastro single off the same pitcher adding another 7.3 percent. Ha-Seong Kim then added a home run off Collin Snider in the fifth for another 11.4 percent swing. Seattle's lone moment of traction came in the top of the second, when Cade Marlowe hit a home run off Yu Darvish for an 8.8 percent positive swing, but the Mariners could not sustain any pressure against a San Diego lineup that kept pulling away.
By cumulative WPA, Tatis Jr. finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at plus-21.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Wade contributed plus-18.5 percent and a plus-2.1 RE24, and Locastro rounded out the top three at plus-14.9 percent and plus-2.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Nick Davila led San Diego's relievers with plus-4.5 percent WPA. Seattle finished with four runs on eight hits and one error, while San Diego posted 12 runs on 14 hits without committing an error.