Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - | 5 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-3 at Sloan Park on March 3, 2024, in a game that began as a competitive contest before Chicago pulled away decisively in the late innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 54 percent home win probability for the Cubs, and that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland held a 3-1 lead through five innings, but Chicago chipped away with a Kevin Alcántara home run off Tim Herrin in the bottom of the sixth that added 13.8 percent to the Cubs' win probability, cutting the deficit to one and setting the stage for what followed.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh, when David Bote launched a home run off Anthony Gose that swung win probability by 30.1 percent in Chicago's favor, the single largest play of the game. That swing erased Cleveland's lead entirely and gave the Cubs the advantage they would not relinquish. The Guardians had their most significant offensive moment in the top of the eighth, when Deyvison De Los Santos singled off Porter Hodge to add 7.9 percent to Cleveland's win probability, but it proved too little to alter the outcome. A notable earlier sequence in the bottom of the third saw Miles Mastrobuoni hit a home run off Xzavion Curry worth 9.4 percent, though a Mike Tauchman double play in the same frame cost Chicago 11.0 percent.
Among individual performers, Bote led all batters with a WPA of plus 30.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.7. Mastrobuoni finished with a combined WPA of plus 14.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Alcántara contributed plus 11.2 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Logan Allen paced Chicago's staff with a WPA of plus 14.4 percent, Porter Hodge added plus 10.8 percent, and Cleveland's Xzavion Curry posted plus 8.5 percent despite absorbing the Mastrobuoni home run. The model's lean throughout favored the Cubs once Chicago's offense came alive in the sixth, and the final numbers reflected a game that turned sharply on a pair of home runs.