New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the New York Yankees 7-3 at Ed Smith Stadium on March 2, 2024, in a game that was largely one-sided once Baltimore began scoring. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with the Orioles holding a 54% win probability as the home team, and by game's end that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly Baltimore controlled the outcome after the middle innings.

The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, where the Orioles did their most damaging work against Yankees pitcher Cody Morris. Austin Hays opened the scoring in the bottom of the fifth with a home run off Morris, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-12.4 percentage points and set the tone for what followed. The sixth inning brought a four-run explosion, anchored by Ryan Mountcastle's double off Morris that added another plus-10.1 percentage points, and further extended by a Michael Pérez walk that contributed plus-5.5 percentage points. Baltimore added two more runs in the seventh before the Yankees plated three runs in a quiet ninth. On the New York side, Alex Verdugo grounded into a double play in the third inning off Cole Irvin, a sequence that cost the Yankees 8.0 percentage points of win probability at a moment when the game was still scoreless.

Hays led all position players by WPA at plus-11.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Mountcastle posted plus-10.3 percent and plus-1.1 RE24. Among pitchers, Marcus Stroman was the most valuable by WPA at plus-17.7 percent, followed by Cole Irvin at plus-8.2 percent and Nick Vespi at plus-7.3 percent, all working on Baltimore's behalf in a game the Orioles never truly relinquished after Hays connected in the fifth.