Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Kansas City Royals edged the Cleveland Guardians 13-12 in a wild spring training contest at Goodyear Ballpark on March 2, 2024, erasing what had been a 54 percent pre-game win probability for the home side down to zero by the final out. Cleveland built momentum through the middle innings, highlighted by a five-run fifth that gave the Guardians a commanding position, but Kansas City answered with a relentless offensive surge that carried through the final frame.

The decisive blow came in the top of the ninth, when Nate Eaton launched a home run off Juan Zapata that swung the DiamondIQ model's win probability by 74.1 percent in Kansas City's favor, turning what had been a tenuous situation into a four-run advantage. Cleveland attempted to respond in the bottom half, and José Tena's forceout off Evan Sisk briefly shifted the probability back toward the Guardians by 27.0 percent, but the Royals' bullpen held firm to secure the one-run win. Earlier, Lorenzo Cedrola's home run off Chandler Champlain in the eighth had added 20.4 percent to Cleveland's win chances, and Daniel Schneemann's solo shot off Dan Altavilla in the fifth contributed a 20.2 percent swing, underscoring how frequently the lead and leverage changed hands throughout the game.

Eaton finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a 75.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.6. Schneemann contributed a 24.1 percent WPA with a plus-1.5 RE24, while Tena's 24.8 percent WPA for Cleveland came with a RE24 of minus-0.6, reflecting the ultimately unproductive nature of that late sequence. On the pitching side, Will Smith led Kansas City's staff with a 6.1 percent WPA, followed by Emmanuel Clase at 4.8 percent and Will Klein at 2.6 percent.