Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox edged the Tampa Bay Rays 3-2 at Charlotte Sports Park on March 2, 2024, handing Tampa Bay a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54 percent home win probability for the Rays. Boston scored in the second, sixth, and eighth innings while Tampa Bay answered in the third and seventh, setting up a tense finish that ultimately favored the visitors.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Joe Dunand hit a home run off Colby White that shifted win probability by plus 20.3 percent in Boston's favor, proving to be the go-ahead run that held. Tampa Bay mounted its most dangerous threat in the bottom of the ninth, where Nick Meyer opened with a double off Noah Song that swung win probability 19.8 percent toward the Rays in the seventh and set the table for a potential comeback. The ninth itself was a microcosm of the game's drama: Jake Mangum delivered a double off Song that added 35.4 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, briefly making a Rays comeback look plausible, but Austin Shenton's strikeout cost the home side 30.4 percent, and Meyer's groundout to close the frame erased another 16.1 percent, ending the rally.
Among individual performers, Mangum finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 42.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, though his contributions came too late to change the outcome. Dunand's home run earned him plus 20.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Rob Refsnyder contributed plus 16.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1 for Boston. On the mound, Luis Guerrero was the standout reliever by WPA at plus 31.6 percent, supported by Logan Workman at plus 12.0 percent and Cam Booser at plus 11.4 percent, as Boston's bullpen held Tampa Bay's final push at bay.