New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 10 | 2 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Mets 4-1 on March 2, 2024, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with Miami scoring three runs in the first inning to seize early control and never relinquishing the lead. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent home win probability for the Marlins and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Miami dominated from the opening frame. The Marlins finished with 10 hits against four for the Mets, while New York committed an error that contributed to a final line of 4 runs, 10 hits, and 2 errors for Miami against 1 run, 4 hits, and 1 error for the visitors.
The game's decisive swings came early and were largely driven by Mets failures rather than offensive breakthroughs. In the second inning, Tyrone Taylor's flyout off Eury Pérez carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game, costing New York 7.3 percentage points in a moment that reinforced Miami's three-run cushion. Pete Alonso's strikeout against Lincoln Henzman in the third inning shed another 7.0 percentage points, and Francisco Alvarez's flyout in that same frame off Henzman added another 5.5-point drop for the Mets. The lone bright spot for New York came in the seventh inning when Brett Baty hit a home run off Roddery Muñoz for a 5.9-point positive swing, accounting for the Mets' only run. On the Marlins' side, Curt Casali's sixth-inning double off Christian Scott contributed an equivalent 5.9-point gain for Miami.
Eury Pérez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-11.4 percent, making him the most impactful individual performer of the game by that measure, followed by Patrick Monteverde at plus-6.9 percent and Sixto Sánchez at plus-4.8 percent. Among hitters, Taylor Kohlwey paced Miami's offense with a WPA of plus-6.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.5, while Nick Fortes and Jazz Chisholm Jr. each posted a plus-6.0 percent WPA contribution. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Miami's pitching staff, particularly Pérez's early dominance, as the central factor in a comfortable Marlins victory.