Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| LAD | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 8 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-5 at Camelback Ranch on March 2, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided by two pivotal innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with a modest 54 percent home win probability for Los Angeles, but that figure climbed steadily and closed at 100 percent as the Dodgers built an insurmountable advantage through consistent scoring in the second and fourth frames.
The two biggest swings in win probability came from Drew Avans and Andy Pages, both working against Cubs pitching in the early innings. Andy Pages got Los Angeles on the board in the second with a home run off Shota Imanaga, a play worth plus 17.1 percent in win probability. Avans then delivered the most impactful hit of the game in the fourth, a double off Hayden Wesneski that shifted the win probability by plus 20.7 percent and gave the Dodgers a commanding cushion. Chicago mounted a brief threat in the seventh when Luis Vázquez singled off Ryan Brasier for a plus 11.6 percent swing, and Mike Tauchman had kept the Cubs within reach in the fourth with a home run off Daniel Hudson worth plus 10.4 percent, but those moments proved insufficient. Kody Hoese added a triple in the eighth off Richard Lovelady for another plus 10.4 percent move that put the game fully out of reach.
Among individual performers, Avans finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 22.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.2, followed by Pages at plus 17.9 percent and plus 1.8 RE24. Tauchman led the Cubs at plus 11.0 percent WPA despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Justin Wilson was the most effective reliever of the afternoon, posting plus 10.8 percent WPA for Los Angeles, with Luke Little and Tanner Dodson each contributing plus 5.4 percent. The final line of 9 hits apiece with one error on each side reflected a balanced offensive showing, though the Dodgers converted theirs at the moments that mattered most.