Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-2 at TD Ballpark on March 2, 2024, with Atlanta scoring three runs in the first inning and three more in the eighth to pull away from a Toronto club that briefly threatened in the seventh. The DiamondIQ model opened with Toronto holding a 54 percent home win probability, but that figure eroded steadily and closed at zero as the Braves handled business on both sides of the ball.
The game's most decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth, when Drake Baldwin delivered a double off Brendon Little that shifted win probability 16.0 percentage points in Atlanta's favor, representing the single largest swing of the contest. Toronto's best moment arrived in the bottom of the seventh, when Danny Jansen hit a double off Jackson Stephens that moved the needle 14.0 points toward the Blue Jays, accounting for one of their two runs on the day. However, Toronto's offensive struggles were encapsulated by two earlier plays that severely damaged their win chances: an Isiah Kiner-Falefa double play off Reynaldo López in the second inning that cost the Blue Jays 12.8 percentage points, and a Garrett Spain strikeout double play in the sixth off Hurston Waldrep that erased another 10.1 points.
Reynaldo López was the game's standout performer, generating 25.4 percentage points of win probability added to lead all pitchers, with Hurston Waldrep contributing an additional 11.6 points. Offensively, Baldwin led all batters with a 16.0 WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Jansen's 8.6 WPA and J.P. Martínez's 5.9 WPA rounded out the top contributors on the day.